Year 2019, Volume 8, Issue 1, Pages 332 - 344 2019-03-30

Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Kırılgan Beşli Ekonomilerinden Kanıtlar
The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies

Gökhan KARHAN [1]

62 174

Genel olarak, büyüme terimi yüksek gelirle, kalkınma terimi ise düşük ve orta gelirli ülkelerle ilişkilidir. Ancak, orta gelir tuzağı kavramı, büyüme ve kalkınma literatüründe yeni tartışmalara neden olmaktadır. İktisat teorisindeki teorik ve ampirik çalışmalar, düşük gelirli ülkelerin uzun yıllar boyunca belirli bir gelir aralığında kaldığını göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, 1968-2017 yılları arasında kırılgan beşli olarak adlandırılan Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye ekonomilerinin, orta gelir tuzağına düşüp düşmediği birim kök testi yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Birim kök testi sonuçları, kırılgan ekonomilerin bu süre zarfında orta gelir tuzağına düştüğünü göstermektedir.               

In general, the term growth is associated with high income, whereas the term development is associated with low and middle income countries. However, the concept of middle income trap causes new discussions in the growth and development literature. Theoretical and empirical studies in economic theory show that the low income countries have remained in a specific income range for many years. This study was carried out to reveal whether the economies of Brasil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, which were called the fragile five in the years between 1968-2017, had fallen into the middle income trap or not with the help of unit root test. Results of the unit root test show that the fragile economies had fallen into the middle income trap in that period.  

  • Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D., & Çakmak, E. (2014). Orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 22-39.
  • Breusch, T., & Pagan, A., 1980. The Lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specification in econometrics. Rev. Econ. Stud., 47, 239–253.
  • Cai, F. (2012). Is there a “middle-income trap”? Theories, experiences and relevance to China. China& World Economy, 20(1), 49-61.
  • Dewitte, Ruben; (2014), “Middle Income Trap and Export Sophistication: Assessment and Economic Policy Implications”, Unpublished Master Thesis, Ghent: Ghent University Faculty of Economic and Business Administration.
  • Doner, Richard F. And Ben Ross Schneider; (2016), “The Middle-Income Trap: More Politics than Economics”, World Politics, 68(4), pp.608–644.
  • Egawa, Akio; (2013), “Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle Income Trap in Asia?”, Bruegel Working Paper, No: 2013/06, Internet Address: http://bruegel.org/2013/10/will-income-inequality-cause-a-middle-income-trap-in-asia/, Date of Access: 12.08.2018.
  • Eğilmez, M. (2012). Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye. Kaynak: http://www. mahfiegilmez. com/2012/12/orta-gelir-tuzag-ve-turkiye. htm,(EriĢim Tarihi: 10.12. 2012).
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D. ve Shin, K. (2012), “When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”, Asian Economic Papers, 11(1), 42-87. (2)
  • Felipe, Jesus; Arnelyn Abdon And Utsav Kumar; (2012), “Tracking the Middle Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper, No: 715.
  • Foster, J. B. (2008). Durgunluk, Kriz ve Emek. Neoliberalizm ve Kriz, (Der. H. Tanıttıran). Çeviren: B. Baysal vd. İstanbul: Kalkedon Yayınları, 49-63.
  • Gill, Indermit And Homi Kharas; (2007), An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, Washington: World Bank Publications.
  • Hartwell, Christopher; (2013), “The Growth Elixir: Escaping the Middle Income Trap in Emerging Markets”, Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Brief 13-08.
  • Hobsbawm, E. (2009). Tarihi Perspektif içinde Kapitalizmin Bunalımı. Dünya Kapitalizminin Krizi, (der. N. Satlıgan, S. Savran). İstanbul: Belge Yayınları, 71-89.
  • Im, K. S., Lee, J., & Tieslau, M. (2005). Panel LM unit‐root tests with level shifts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 393-419.
  • Kanapathy, Vijayakumari And Herizal Hazri; (2013), “Political Economy Dimension of A Middle Income Trap: Challenges and Opportunities for Policy Reform (Malaysia)”, Internet Address: http://www.econ.chula.ac. Date of Access: 12.07.2018.
  • Kharas, H., & Kohli, H. (2011). What is the middle income trap, why do countries fall into it, and how can it be avoided?. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), 281-289.
  • Kindleberger, C. P. (2007). Cinnet, Panik, Çöküş Mali Krizler Tarihi. Çeviren H. Tunalı. İstanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Koçak, E., & Bulut, Ü. (2014). Orta gelir tuzağı: teorik çerçeve, ampirik yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 1-21.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, 1-16.
  • Luiz, John M.; (2016), “The Political of Economy Middle Income Traps: Is South Africa in A Long-run Growth Trap? The Path to Bounded Populism”, South African Journal of Economics, 86 (1), pp.3-19.
  • Paus, E. (2014). Latin America and the middle income trap.
  • Pesaran, Hasem, M., (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Working Paper No:0435, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T., 2008. A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross section independence. Econometrics Journal 11, 105–127.
  • Robertson, P., & Ye, L. (2013). On the existence of a middle income trap.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Taşar, İ., Gültekin, E., & Acci, Y. (2016). Is Turkey in a middle income trap?. Journal of Applied Research in Finance and Economics, 1(1), 36-41.
  • Tran, V. T. (2013). The middle-income trap: Issues for members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
  • Wang, Yikai; (2014), “Will China Escape the Middle-income Trap? A Politico-economic Theory of Growth and State Capitalism”, Internet Address: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/dpe/JobMarketCandidates/Wang_ Yikai_JMP.pdf, Date of Access: 25.08.2018.
  • Woo, Wing Thye; (2012), ”China Meets the Middle-income Trap: the Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10 (4), pp.313-336.
  • Yeldan, E., Taşcı, K., Voyvoda, E. ve Özsan, M.E. (2012), “Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkış: Hangi Türkiye?”, Türkonfed Raporu.
Primary Language en
Subjects Social, Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0003-1393-4649
Author: Gökhan KARHAN (Primary Author)
Institution: BATMAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date: March 30, 2019

Bibtex @research article { itobiad499976, journal = {İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi}, issn = {}, eissn = {2147-1185}, address = {Mustafa YİĞİTOĞLU}, year = {2019}, volume = {8}, pages = {332 - 344}, doi = {10.15869/itobiad.499976}, title = {The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies}, key = {cite}, author = {KARHAN, Gökhan} }
APA KARHAN, G . (2019). The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8 (1), 332-344. DOI: 10.15869/itobiad.499976
MLA KARHAN, G . "The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies". İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 8 (2019): 332-344 <http://www.itobiad.com/issue/43055/499976>
Chicago KARHAN, G . "The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies". İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 8 (2019): 332-344
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies AU - Gökhan KARHAN Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.15869/itobiad.499976 DO - 10.15869/itobiad.499976 T2 - İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 332 EP - 344 VL - 8 IS - 1 SN - -2147-1185 M3 - doi: 10.15869/itobiad.499976 UR - https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.499976 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Journal of the Human and Social Science Researches The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies %A Gökhan KARHAN %T The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies %D 2019 %J İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi %P -2147-1185 %V 8 %N 1 %R doi: 10.15869/itobiad.499976 %U 10.15869/itobiad.499976
ISNAD KARHAN, Gökhan . "The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies". İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 8 / 1 (March 2019): 332-344. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.499976
AMA KARHAN G . The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies. itobiad. 2019; 8(1): 332-344.
Vancouver KARHAN G . The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2019; 8(1): 344-332.